Key Facts

A market of 9 billion

The global agri-food sector has two interconnected dimensions: a so-called ‘9-billion future’ and a ‘1-billion problem’. The ‘9 billion’ is the size of the future global consumer market. The World Business Council for Sustainable Development, among many, sees enormous business opportunities in the need for innovations and services that will make it possible to feed so many daily in a sustainable way.

At the same time 1 billion people go hungry daily, with another billion people living in marginal economic circumstances. Furthermore, most of the population growth will take place at the bottom of the economic pyramid. By 2050 there will be around 4 billion people at the base of the pyramid: if this group undergoes significant economic development, it represents a massive new market opportunity. Ignore it and half the world’s population goes hungry, and creates global instability.

Practically this means business needs to figure out very different ways of connecting to both suppliers and markets. Currently most modern agri-food markets are built around a ‘comfort zone’ of 10% large-scale commercial farmers, and 10% of small farmers who have the assets and capacities to connect to modern markets.

Inclusive market development is about finding new ways of doing business that make it possible to work with the 40% of asset-limited farmers who have the short-term potential to become commercially viable. Here too lie the challenges of scaling: hundreds of millions of farmers with limited organisation, networking, assets and capacities. And the potential: a massive increase in the number of producers of food for all, and generators of economic impetus within their communities.

Key facts and Trends
Today

• Smallholders produce 50% of the world’s global food requirements.

• There are 525 million farmers in the world. 90% are smallholders.

• 2.6 billion people depend on agriculture for their livelihoods.

• 75% of the world’s poor live in rural areas and depend on agriculture.

• Between 1981 and 2005, overall poverty in Asia fell from 60% to 40% of the population but absolute numbers stayed static.

• In Sub-Saharan Africa, between 1981 and 2005, overall poverty stayed at 50% of the population with absolute numbers rising from 214 million to 390 million .

By 2050

• The Global population will peak at 9.3 billion by 2050.

• The population of Africa will double, adding 1 billion people.

• The population of Asia will also increase by 1 billion people.

• World food prices may rise 30-50% in the coming decades.

• Two-thirds of the world population will live in urban areas;  a 50% increase with increases in urban poverty and slums.

• Most of the population growth will be at the bottom of the economic pyramid.